Grains –
Note the chart attached here showing the combined daily volume in the major May contracts at CBOT over the past few weeks. As you can see, volume has been steadily declining and I would imagine that might continue to be the case until we get closer to the month-end reports. There isn’t really anything new to discuss right now. Export demand is seasonally declining, which should be reflected in inspections this morning. South American weather prospects continue to seem mostly favorable. US weather will be gaining more attention, but we’re still a ways off from widespread spring planting getting underway.
As noted above in the weather commentary, wheat will certainly pay attention to how this weather system develops later this week, which could bring the best shot of moisture for the region in quite some time. Deviation from the forecast for this event could certainly be one thing that could drive market action ahead of the month end reports, but there is little else to get excited about in the next two weeks. Markets should be on hold until 3/31.
As an example of markets’ overall indifference until 3/31, note Safras raised their Brazilian corn production estimate to 98 mmt on Friday…and the corn market didn’t even blink.
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