Crops –
Following the discussion yesterday on new crop export demand prospects, I realized I have been so focused on weather and conditions lately that I haven’t really been paying attention to old crop demand figures recently. I decided to look closely at inspections yesterday, and I very quickly realized I’ve fallen behind on old crop corn export prospects.
Simply put, WASDE is too low on their corn export figure and my only question is by how much? Census export totals through May combined with weekly inspections since then lead to a rough estimate of total MYTD exports of roughly 2,050 mil bu. This leaves a remainder of 175 mil bu to reach the WASDE projection or a weekly average of roughly 25 mil bu per week. As you can see on the chart below, weekly corn shipments at this point of year typically don’t drop below 30 mil bu. Reaching a final marketing year export total of 2,275 mil bu, or 50 mil bu more than the current WASDE projection, would require a weekly average from this point forward of roughly 32 mil bu a week. Even that seems like it might be a bit too pessimistic.
Bottom line, I’d expect WASDE to raise their corn export figure next month by at least 50 mil bu and potentially more. This doesn’t necessarily change much in terms of corn price prospects in the near term, but still important to note.
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