Grains –
It is perhaps worth noting that the Brazilian soybean export line-up is starting to show signs of perking up. The line-up posted yesterday showed the largest soybean tonnage seen since early fall. Though still below last year’s levels, which weighed on early season 15/16 US exports, the line-up could quickly pick up pace considering expectations for early harvest in northern portions of Brazil.
Here in the US the soybean shipment pace continues to seasonally slow down. Still, shipments are remaining above year ago levels. As you can see in the chart US shipments to China are slowing down considerably, again following seasonal trends. Despite the fact that the tapering of the export program is following the seasonal norm, I do have some concern that the shipment pace is starting to fall short of what is needed to meet the WASDE projection. I have a chart showing a history of Census exports and estimates for recent months based on inspections data. The slowdown in shipments has been fairly sharp in the past few weeks and wouldn’t necessarily argue that WASDE’s projection will be reached. The question is whether last year’s summer demand was just an unusual circumstance following shortfalls in SAM production last year or if we should expect to see improved summer demand going forward. If last summer’s demand was an outlier, then I suspect WASDE might prove to be high on their export projection.
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